Brexit UpdateSubmitted by Headwater Investment Consulting on March 12th, 2019
By Kevin Chambers
March 29th. 17 days away as I’m writing this. Not a lot of time. March 29th is the date when Britain will leave the EU, with a plan or not…. Sort of. At this point, British lawmakers have
been unable to come up with a solution with how they want their country to leave the trade union. Theresa May, the prime minister of the UK, brought a proposal to Parliament in January. That plan gave her the biggest defeat in more than a century. She is bringing an almost identical proposal to the legislative body today, to see if the time crunch changes any of the lawmaker’s minds. Most likely this vote will fail.
After that vote, there will most likely be two subsequent votes on Wednesday and Thursday. First, May will bring a vote for Parliament to approve a “no deal Brexit.” Politically this makes no sense for parliamentarians to vote yes on because it is the outcome regardless if they vote or not.
Finally, near the end of the week, Parliament is scheduled to delay Brexit by an undetermined number of months. This is the most likely scenario. This proposal, even if it does pass, must also be approved by the EU’s European Council. But it can’t go to the Council without Parliamentary approval.
This seems like the most likely scenario. Kicking the can down the road. Pushing this impossible decision into the summer. It doesn’t change the hand that May has to play: an impossible-to-please coalition and a large amount of public dissension in the whole process. Delaying Brexit could give May’s opponents a new chance to rally support for a new vote of no-confidence. However, with how much money and power is at stake with the resolution of this problem, and the unpredictability of global elections, maybe there is an outcome that we can’t see coming.